State of the Union... between Marty & Me

I haven't been active here for a long while, so I thought it's time to throw out a few ideas that have been percolating, mainly on politics and some talk of baseball --but the stove for the GOP nomination is hotter than MLB's, and I guess the stakes are a little higher.

Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2012 11:42:24 -0800
From: Marty Waxman
Subject: 2012
To: David Mark Speer

What a shitty year so far....I had the flu for a week and I've had a flock of giant geese around my house that I can't get rid of. I can't wait until this year is over!
2012 Mets...is there anything to talk about? 70-92 on the horizon.

With the Tea Party avalanche in 2010, you have to wonder why no Tea Party candidate is still in the race. Romney is a jerkoff (and I don't care is he made $1 Billion, so what?), Newt wants illegals to stay (a major no-no here), and Santorum wears sweater vests that I threw out in 1990. Ron Paul mixes up great ideas with idiocy. There's no hope, Dave.

Most people here are Oakland Raider/SF 49er fans, so I couldn't be happier that Big Blue stuck it to them yesterday. I hope they knock Tom Brady on his butt all game long.

Did you folks happen to hear about the big fire out here? We got a call from the fire department on Friday evening to be on the alert to evacuate, but the fire didn't come within 15 miles of the house, so no harm, no foul. We were pretty much stranded afterward because FEMA closed all the highways and roads until the crews inspected everything within a 40 mile radius, and the aftermath was everything smelling like it came out of a chimney. Grrr!!!!

I heard you folks got a few inches of snow. Since November 20th, we've had only half an inch....last year at this time, we had 93 inches. As long as the resorts are pumping out all the manmade stuff they need, I'm doing a victory dance - - I've hated snow my whole life!

From: david speer
To: marty waxman
Sent: Monday, January 23, 2012 12:24 PM
Subject: RE: 2012

Things are tough all over, Marty. At least you have geese. You might recall that after the "bird strike" that made Capt. Sully a national, nay, galactic hero NYC started up with a policy of killing geese en masse near airports, but then got heat for using the meat (tender goose meat) as donations to the homeless, etc because no one could tell what those bastards had been eating, blah, blah... bureaucracy at its best, once again.

The GOP is unfortunately for them, two parties or maybe three. The national party seems to want to go the normal route (let the guy next in line have the nomination, swing hard on the incumbent), while the rank-and-file and over-polled voters just want a reality show food fight and the most conservative wing is just lost in the sauce of having finally caught a fire truck and trying to figure out what to do with it. At this rate, some third party candidate will show up, steal votes from Romney and give Mr. Obama another term by default. Not saying that's a good or even tenable option, but it just seems likely.

The lousy snow has washed away already, but I'm glad your house didn't get burned down. That would just plain suck, to put it mildly.

MLB, NFL: The Mets are in a goddamn pitiful shape. Payroll shrinking (if the checks don't bounce) and no direction home on responsible, sane, sober ownership. And Brady may be on his butt, but Eli will probably be looking at a lot of Indiana sky if the Giants’ offensive line protects him the way they did yesterday. Should be a good Stupid Bowl, nonetheless.

Keep the faith, whatever faith sustains you...
DMSpeer

Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2012 13:21:35 -0800
From: Marty
Subject: Re: 2012
To: dmspeer

Dave, the geese out here are like pteryodactyls with a 7 foot wing span. How would you like to fight off a flock of them to get out of your driveway? Those things don't move...they hiss and give stare-downs, and there's a $10,000 fine for every one you're caught killing/harming. Pretty expensive pate dish, methinks!

Times have changed since John Anderson (and even Ross Perot) ran as 3rd party candidates. The electorate knows any 3rd party will win only 10-20% of a vote and will split a party, so I don't think one will ever emerge again. Ron Paul might have thought about it until the GOP threatened to strip his son of everything in the Senate, especially if they take over next year...don't think it didn't happen. Plus, if it's all about $$$, what 3rd party can raise enough to compete? Perot put up $60 Million of his own, which was considered to be a lot. Now, $60 Million might buy a week's worth of advertising.

It's hard to believe the Democratic Party is totally united. It was only 5 years ago when Bernie Sanders was an outcast. But now, Bernie speaks as if he's mainstream....are all Democrats really on the same page as he?

With all the discussion about Government programs, something is missing. Yes, many of them have a beneficial effect (the VA, Unemployment insurance, SS, Medicare, and 100 others), but think about what they cause, and what adding more of them does...to wit:

Government programs wind up holding recipients captive. When politicians can say, "You depend on X program, and you can lose it, so vote for me or else," politicians become tyrants. Let's say you depend on a program and a politician says that to you....are you really "free?" Nope.

Right now, 47% of Americans receive some sort of Government benefit. That's 47% held captive by the threat of losing something they're dependent on. And, the more the Government offers people, the more that percentage grows. Is this what the Founders had in mind...receiving a Government benefit so politicians could use it as a football to control people? I think not.


From: david speer
To: marty waxman
Sent: Tuesday, January 24, 2012 7:34 AM
Subject: RE: 2012

Taking the last part first, I see where you're going with this, because as a practical matter the government should "live within its means," as the current saying goes, but I guess it comes down to what are "its means". By that I mean, rather than looking at benefits to the elderly, the infirm, the veteran and the like as a handout and source of dependency, why don't we see the benefits as our obligation to society as a whole? My point is, the Founders are not here with us to guide and direct. It is our responsibility to foster a living, evolving democracy and they way things are now, without economic growth that spreads across all sectors and income ranges, the government can't possibly be expected to fund all the initiatives and entitlements we have come to expect (or depend upon) so the answer is make the pie bigger, higher (as Dubya once said).

Also, we're going to have to make some hard choices about who is deserving and who ain't; a retiree with 5 or 6 million in the bank isn't a Medicare recipient in my book, and shouldn't be. Get rid of the pigs at the trough (for real, really) and the trough won't go empty so fast.

Anyway, as to the 3rd party thing, I wasn't saying it'll happen this year, but it has to happen eventually. These two parties have calcified into proxies for interest groups whose stranglehold over the economy is tight and tightening, so we'd better get busy re-aligning the system along more parliamentary lines so that representation means something more than having a mouthpiece in D.C. who was bought by the right (or Left, in the case of Mr. Soros and his bunch) oligarch.

Chew on that for a bit. Gotta pretend I'm working, and I can't type while doing that.

Date: Tue, 24 Jan 2012 09:35:42 -0800
From: Marty
Subject: Re: 2012
To: dmspeer

It's a tough call, Dave. To play Devil's Advocate, suppose I'm a 62 year old guy with $10 Million in the bank, and have paid into SS since the age of 21. Am I entitled to nothing from SS?

In actuality, raising taxes on the "rich" won't solve our problems, or even come close to it. If you tax the $1+ Million earners a rate of 100%, you'll put $870 Billion into the coffers. The deficit is 50% higher than that. It's getting tiresome, and history should teach us something about it.

In 1932, FDR banged the "tax the rich" drum and passed the 1932 Revenue Act. The idea behind it was to use the money to fund Government projects (TVA, etc...) while balancing the budget. Here's what happened:

The Marginal Tax Rate went from 25% to 78%, and the Capital Gains Tax went from 12.5% to 39.5%. Also added were various excise taxes.

Now...did that dig us out of the Depression, or simply prolong it? By 1940 (eight years after the increases were passed), the national unemployment rate was still 14.2%. Hmmmmm......

Turning to politics:
The problem with trying to "change the system" is that the only ones who can change the rules are the people in power benefiting from the rules. We're not ruled by national referendums, and elections, for all the hooting and hollering, change nothing. Politicians know this, bang the drum about "change," and as soon as the election is over, all's forgotten until the next election cycle, and it starts all over again. What can a powerless 3rd party do about it? Not a heck of a lot.
Obama says he stands by the 99%ers, but he makes no bones about raising $1 Billion and speaking at $30,000/plate functions. Nancy Pelosi said, "God bless the Occupiers," but she calls her stock broker as soon as she finds out what's coming out of a Committee (before anyone else does). These are "Agents of change?"

Fuck 'em all, Dave. Even the freshmen Tea Party Congressmen caved....they finally went along with everything. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

From: david speer
To: marty waxman
Sent: Tuesday, January 24, 2012 11:33 AM
Subject: RE: 2012

It isn't fair for someone to not get back what they paid into Social Security, but that's just one of the many flaws in the way the program was designed. It was promoted as your fair share coming back to you when you retire, but that was never the case, even if the public didn't know it. Maybe what we need is some oversight that says, hey, this guy is making a lot of money and maybe we shouldn't take Social Security tax out for him, since he's not really going to need the benefit later on, or some such.

There is probably some kind of diminishing returns thing at work with try to erase a deficit on the backs of the 1% alone, I realize that, but in a targeted and measured way, skewing the tax collection toward the upper end of the income scale might be helpful, if only to keep the masses from lighting their torches.

My whole point about a 3rd party is that we need maybe 5 of 6, not just the two. Under a parliamentary system with many competing parties, the governance may be messier but it's more representative and the results of power shared could (possibly) lead to a real change in the way we do all our business. An economic model based not on predation but on cooperation. Maybe. Oh, who am I kidding? Greed wins and they're all eaten up with it, from Obama to Boehner to Cantor to Reid.

We can't throw the bathwater out, but these babies need to be left on the doorstep of the nearest orphanage. Right next door to the dustbin of history, so to speak.

With this next set of exchanges, the subject line has changed, but the overall topics are the same.

Date: Wed, 25 Jan 2012 10:37:26 -0800
From: marty
Subject: The Tigers have lost their minds
To: dmspeer
Prince Fielder for NINE years???

OK, they'll miss Victor Martinez this year, but why try to replace him with another Mo Vaughn? I'm glad the Mets are bankrupt...it stops them from doing ridiculous things like this.

Why even talk about Social Security when everyone in Washington wants to lower the payroll tax (which funds Social Security)?
The original model for Social Security was 15 contributors for every recipient. Now, the ratio is close to 2 contributors for every recipient. If you think this system can be sustained at that rate, consider:

For the next 19 years, 10,000 people a DAY will be entering Social Security. Simple math says 10,000 people X 30 days = 300,000 new recipients a month. Now, with a ratio of 2:1 contributors/recipients, that means we'll have to add 600,000 contributors a month just to pay the 300,000 new recipients every month. Does that sound doable?

The idea of multiple parties in Washington (5 or 6, as you opine) sounds wonderful...lots of different voices, lots of different opinions and ideas, and because there is no majority rule, they all sing a consensus Kumbaya. I hasten to remind (and don't get the idea I use the word "hasten" often) that the world once had only Adam, Eve, and two sons. Could just four people get along? Nope...one brother killed the other.

As things stand, I'm actually a believer that only the rich should be in Washington. A Supreme Court appointment is lifetime, and that's to keep a judge free of outside influence. Well, if we're to keep judges influence-free, why not our politicians, as well? Unfortunately, the only way to do that is to elect financially independent people whom can't be bribed with campaign contributions. Can you buy John Kerry's vote with $50,000? Or Rockefeller's? Or a guy like Corzine? I'd dare to say no, but consider the flip side: a Washington full of Rod Blagojeviches. $50,000 could buy his vote for anything and everything. That's the problem with electing an everyday guy whom supposedly relates to the average Joe Shmoe.

This is where the Tea Party has a valid point. With a Government as corrupt as the one we have, the less of it, the better.

Interesting point of fact: Remember the rants against Halliburton's no-bid contracts? Well, since Obama was inaugurated, Halliburton's no-bid contracts have been renewed twice and the stock price has gone from $17.23 to $36.20. Change we can believe in, eh?

From: david speer
To: marty waxman
Sent: Wednesday, January 25, 2012 11:46 AM
Subject: RE: The Tigers have lost their minds

You know, I was thinking the same thing. If Ike Davis can come back decently from injury, he should be a pretty good addition to the lineup. The boy can hit and he can certainly save you a few errors, which we'll need with Wright's inaccuracy and no Reyes at short. As to the Tigers, I don't get it, but if they feel like that extra bit of thump in the lineup (I'm minimizing sarcastically, of course) can make the difference, then fine. But I seem to recall V-Mart being pretty big for them in the playoffs, making like Kirk Gibson at the plate even though he pulled his oblique on a HR. That kind of A-1 tough guy stuff isn't easy to replace, even with a latter day Mo Vaughn (had to laugh when I read that).

I won't even get into the State of the Union -- strong and getter stronger from what I've heard every year I can remember. Except for that time Carter sent in an essay rather than standing at the podium.

Date: Wed, 25 Jan 2012 12:22:11 -0800
From: marty
Subject: Re: The Tigers have lost their minds
To: dmspeer

I totally agree....while Victor Martinez was a Godsend in the playoffs, Prince Fielder was a busted blimp. You can't replace primetime players overnight.

Oh, c'mon, let's bandy a bit about the speech. Some things struck me:

1. If Obamacare and the Stimulus are the two signature "accomplishments" of this administration, why was there NO mention of either one?

2. So Obama, you don't like filibusters over appointments, eh? Bush had 200 Federal judge and ambassador nominees filibustered in the Senate and you didn't seem to mind. But you did vote against raising the debt ceiling in 2006, and you now admonish those who do. For better or worse, be consistent!

3. Not a SINGLE word about Europe and the possible ramifications this year? The Greek deal was just called off and they're back at the drawing board, while Euro bond rates are skyrocketing and Governments there won't be able to afford the interest. Do you have ANY contingency plan if the Euro winds up six feet under, which is becoming more and more likely?

4. Why is it that as Government has expanded, more and more people feel "disenfranchised?" Sure, in 2008, plenty of folks felt that way, but Government now has its tentacles in everything and "disenfranchisement" is now a rallying cry.

5. Student tuitions: College tuitions have skyrocketed ever since student loans became easier to attain. Once the Government gets involved with paying student loans, tuitions will triple overnight - and you and I will be stuck for it! If you (Obama) have it in the back of your mind that the Government will repay the loans on behalf of the students, can we at least add a couple of requirements, such as "If you want to the mating habits of Aborigines for six years and think the Government is going to pay for it, think again...study something that will get you a job one day!"

Those are five points out of 100....your turn.

From: david mark speer
To: marty waxman
Sent: Wednesday, January 25, 2012 1:32 PM
Subject: RE: The Tigers have lost their minds

1 -- Healthcare reform, as it has been accomplished, was a overreach (not in the sense of the role of government in our lives, but the design and mandate element) and the stimulus was nowhere near as big or targeted as it should have been. Every reputable economist I follow (Stieglitz, Krugman) would tell you if you're going to blow a hole in the deficit, blow it sky high so that any short-term activity benefits with their attendant multipliers will have the most impact. Instead, we got a bunch of talk about "shovel-ready projects" and the roads are still crumbling. So why bring that stuff up?

2 -- The politicization of executive appointments is part and parcel of why every Congress is a do nothing, unless you get your hands washed in the process, and a goddamn travesty. This speaks back to Mr. Obama's nature as a political creature hiding behind an activist's fervor and an academic's robes. I know this is mixing the points, but did you catch that part about how "some" green energy companies will fail, but that's okay because the benefits aren't always apparent right away? Well the benefits of Solyndra will never come to light, and he went there anyway.

3 -- According to the CEO of Tri-Tabs (a hedge fund in Miami) Europe looks worse today than six months ago, but the saving grace might be in streamlining the debt relief process for individuals over there or some kind of entitlement reform for the worst of the PIIGS (something I just heard on Jeopardy! of all places). My guess is that the Germans are going to have to suck up some new taxes and make some cuts domestically to somehow subsidize their neighbors -- those same neighbors they gladly leased Mercedes-Benzes to on suddenly cheap money back in the early days of the new euro, knowing damn well those Greeks couldn't and wouldn't pay off. If it takes the system down, chalk it up to something very German-sounding called "creative destruction".

4 -- I think the word disenfranchisement is being used incorrectly, because what we're seeing more and more is a sense of anomie, that socially we're disconnected and increasingly removed from the arcane forces that shape our lives and run the world. People feel they have no say in the processes by which things get done, and it's just another symptom of a world spinning out of our control. If the voters of Wisconsin get it right this time, they'll have their franchise in spades; whether it gets them the government they really want and deserve is another, yet untold and unfinished story.

5 -- Personally I never had any student loan debt to worry about, so I don't care. In fact, the whole idea of a college education (as currently constituted) being essential to earning a living is more and more outdated. What we need is more of a certification system that allows a graduate to say at least they've covered a core curriculum that we all accept as a standard for an educated person, and on the state and local level, colleges should be empowered to do the very things Mr. Obama referred to when talking about that lady with the glasses and her re-training experiences.

Now my boss is wondering who the hell I'm e-mailing, so I'm going to sign off... do you mind if I go ahead and use this exchange and others of the last few days on the blog? It may spark some interesting debate among my even more lefty friends here in Brooklyn.

Later,
DMSpeer

Marty: 01/25/12

Dave, nothing I write or say can't be shared. Since all Emails are viewed/screened by the Government (don't be naive and think they're not), why not?

Excellent point about college education in 2012. I don't understand why trade schools aren't springing up like when I was college age...remember the guy from Apex Tech who used to say in ads, "I can't call you, you'll need to call me?" We will ALWAYS need plumbers, carpenters, roofers, car mechanics, and so on....why stress to a kid that a four year degree is so necessary? Trade schools are/were comparatively inexpensive, and graduates are/were in demand. Being a $75,000/year plumber sure beats being an unemployed college graduate with a mountain of debt.

Don't know if you read Bernanke's comments today, but he's following Japan's model that has sunk the place into a recession for the last 15 years. He's extending his 0% interest rate, QE programs through 2014 (originally, through 2013). He's claiming that inflation is in check, but maybe he hasn't seen commodities skyrocketing since January 1st. Kick the can is a fun game, isn't it?

Joe Biden said something interesting on Monday about the massive new wave of foreclosures about to hit the fan. All the economists agree that the housing market needs to bottom out before there will be any improvement. Biden said, "All the economists are right, we need to let the market bottom out. Unfortunately, we can't do that." Well, if we can't do what's necessary, what's the answer? I agree that throwing 3 or 4 million people out of their homes isn't "what Jesus would have done," but the Government can't keep putting Band-Aids on a leaking balloon without it exploding one day soon. Constant refinancing programs haven't worked, and they'll continue not to work. And we certainly can't afford to forgive mortgage debt. Housing booms have always dug us out of prior recessions, but no such luck this time around. So Joe Biden...what do you suggest?

OK, get back when you can. I almost forgot its lunchtime, anyway.

And with that, the campaign season is on. Another leg in the ongoing quest for a more perfect union and the all the rest gets underway.

© David Mark Speer, Marty Waxman
January 2012